Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
